{
 "built": "2026-10-20T02:35Z",
 "bar": 4.9,
 "bar_n": 47270,
 "method": "    python tools/build_ranking.py --cache .rankcache [--refresh] --out docs/data/ranking/latest.json\n\nEvery record is scored on its excess over a market: stocks and funds against the S&P 500 with\ndividends (Vanguard 500 Index, VFINX, adjusted close), wallets against BTC, Polymarket against the\nprice paid for each share (which is already a market-relative test). A raw-return test would credit a\nrecord for the market rising: the S&P 500 itself reaches z = 4.94 against zero over 1965-2025\n(tools/masters_calibration.py).\n\nStocks and funds: monthly total returns from Yahoo Finance's chart endpoint (daily adjusted close,\nlast value of each month), converted to USD where needed. The t of alpha in an OLS of the record's\nmonthly return on the benchmark's is put on the normal scale with n - 2 degrees of freedom (the same\nStudent-t mapping as the wallet check), with both sides in excess of the one-month T-bill rate\n(Fama-French data library) so a fund holding cash is not credited with the T-bill yield. Berkshire Hathaway and Renaissance Medallion use yearly\nreturns from their primary sources instead (the 2025 shareholder letter; Cornell 2019, Table 1, from\nZuckerman 2019), which are longer than any price feed.\n\nOnly funds that exist today are in a price feed, so the ranking leans toward survivors; that is\nstated on the page. Each record's verdict uses the same bar as a wallet picked from the Hyperliquid\nboard (bar(47,000) = 4.90): famous records are famous because they were picked after the fact.",
 "checks": {
  "vfinx_vs_letter_sp500": {
   "years": 38,
   "max_abs_diff_pp": 0.98,
   "mean_abs_diff_pp": 0.19
  },
  "brk_feed_vs_letter": {
   "years": 45,
   "max_abs_diff_pp": 0.05,
   "mean_abs_diff_pp": 0.03
  }
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": "brk",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Berkshire Hathaway",
   "who": "Warren Buffett",
   "venue": "Yearly returns",
   "source": "Berkshire 2025 shareholder letter, per-share market value",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "z": 3.15,
   "beta": 0.81,
   "n": 61,
   "first": "1965",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 61.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1979,
   "ann_bench": 0.1055,
   "alpha_ann": 0.1326,
   "z_10y": 1.7,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "brk_2001",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Berkshire Hathaway, 2001 onward",
   "who": "Warren Buffett",
   "venue": "Yearly returns",
   "source": "Berkshire 2025 shareholder letter",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "z": 1.65,
   "beta": 0.59,
   "n": 25,
   "first": "2001",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 25.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0991,
   "ann_bench": 0.0883,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0417,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "medallion",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Renaissance Medallion, net of fees",
   "who": "Jim Simons",
   "venue": "Yearly returns",
   "source": "Cornell (2019) Table 1, from Zuckerman (2019); estimates, not audited",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "z": 6.93,
   "beta": -0.59,
   "n": 31,
   "first": "1988",
   "last": "2018",
   "years": 31.0,
   "ann_return": 0.3784,
   "ann_bench": 0.1018,
   "alpha_ann": 0.4121,
   "z_10y": 4.84,
   "verdict": "clears_board"
  },
  {
   "id": "sequx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Sequoia Fund",
   "who": "Ruane, Cunniff",
   "venue": "SEQUX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (SEQUX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.41,
   "beta": 0.78,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1162,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0215,
   "z_10y": -1.12,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "lmvtx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Legg Mason Value Trust (now ClearBridge)",
   "who": "Bill Miller (founding manager)",
   "venue": "LMVTX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (LMVTX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -1.69,
   "beta": 1.14,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.0996,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0204,
   "z_10y": -1.29,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "dodgx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Dodge & Cox Stock",
   "who": "Dodge & Cox",
   "venue": "DODGX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (DODGX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.8,
   "beta": 0.96,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1191,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0091,
   "z_10y": -0.44,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "fairx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fairholme Fund",
   "who": "Bruce Berkowitz",
   "venue": "FAIRX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FAIRX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.02,
   "beta": 0.86,
   "n": 320,
   "first": "2000-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 26.7,
   "ann_return": 0.0962,
   "ann_bench": 0.0823,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0336,
   "z_10y": -0.26,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "arkk",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "ARK Innovation ETF",
   "who": "Cathie Wood",
   "venue": "ARKK, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (ARKK, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -0.49,
   "beta": 1.75,
   "n": 142,
   "first": "2014-11",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 11.8,
   "ann_return": 0.1387,
   "ann_bench": 0.1377,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0371,
   "z_10y": -0.4,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "psh",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Pershing Square Holdings",
   "who": "Bill Ackman",
   "venue": "PSH.L, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (PSH.L, GBp to USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.45,
   "beta": 1.04,
   "n": 113,
   "first": "2017-04",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 9.4,
   "ann_return": 0.1689,
   "ann_bench": 0.1505,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0256,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "smt",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Scottish Mortgage",
   "who": "Baillie Gifford",
   "venue": "SMT.L, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (SMT.L, GBp to USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.39,
   "beta": 1.36,
   "n": 272,
   "first": "2004-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 22.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1372,
   "ann_bench": 0.1084,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0131,
   "z_10y": 0.24,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "mkl",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Markel Group",
   "who": "Tom Gayner",
   "venue": "MKL, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (MKL, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 2.14,
   "beta": 0.58,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1344,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0657,
   "z_10y": -0.44,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "ffh",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fairfax Financial",
   "who": "Prem Watsa",
   "venue": "FFH.TO, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FFH.TO, CAD to USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.45,
   "beta": 0.59,
   "n": 275,
   "first": "2003-10",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 22.9,
   "ann_return": 0.1282,
   "ann_bench": 0.1127,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0844,
   "z_10y": 0.59,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "djco",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Daily Journal Corp.",
   "who": "Charlie Munger (chairman to 2022)",
   "venue": "DJCO, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (DJCO, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.43,
   "beta": 0.54,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1075,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0679,
   "z_10y": 0.23,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "nanc",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "NANC ETF (Democrats’ disclosed trades)",
   "who": "Nancy Pelosi and colleagues, as disclosed",
   "venue": "NANC, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (NANC, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.02,
   "beta": 1.14,
   "n": 42,
   "first": "2023-03",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 3.5,
   "ann_return": 0.2475,
   "ann_bench": 0.2226,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0004,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "fcntx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fidelity Contrafund",
   "who": "Will Danoff (since 1990)",
   "venue": "FCNTX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FCNTX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 3.85,
   "beta": 0.88,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1483,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0402,
   "z_10y": 1.15,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "flpsx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fidelity Low-Priced Stock",
   "who": "Joel Tillinghast (from 1989)",
   "venue": "FLPSX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FLPSX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 2.56,
   "beta": 0.84,
   "n": 440,
   "first": "1990-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 36.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1307,
   "ann_bench": 0.1083,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0338,
   "z_10y": -0.7,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "fdgrx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fidelity Growth Company",
   "who": "Fidelity",
   "venue": "FDGRX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FDGRX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.68,
   "beta": 1.15,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.153,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0294,
   "z_10y": 1.65,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "fmagx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fidelity Magellan",
   "who": "Fidelity (Peter Lynch to 1990)",
   "venue": "FMAGX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FMAGX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -1.07,
   "beta": 1.07,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1086,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0089,
   "z_10y": -0.77,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "agthx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "American Funds Growth Fund of America",
   "who": "Capital Group",
   "venue": "AGTHX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (AGTHX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.25,
   "beta": 1.01,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1162,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0027,
   "z_10y": -0.21,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "awshx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "American Funds Washington Mutual",
   "who": "Capital Group",
   "venue": "AWSHX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (AWSHX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.99,
   "beta": 0.83,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1088,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0077,
   "z_10y": 0.14,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "aivsx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "American Funds Investment Company of America",
   "who": "Capital Group",
   "venue": "AIVSX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (AIVSX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.24,
   "beta": 0.87,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1052,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0013,
   "z_10y": -0.09,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "trbcx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth",
   "who": "T. Rowe Price",
   "venue": "TRBCX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (TRBCX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.52,
   "beta": 1.06,
   "n": 398,
   "first": "1993-07",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 33.2,
   "ann_return": 0.1169,
   "ann_bench": 0.1087,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0053,
   "z_10y": -0.08,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "prgfx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "T. Rowe Price Growth Stock",
   "who": "T. Rowe Price",
   "venue": "PRGFX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (PRGFX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -1.12,
   "beta": 1.04,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1028,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0113,
   "z_10y": -0.59,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "vpmcx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Vanguard PRIMECAP",
   "who": "PRIMECAP Management",
   "venue": "VPMCX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (VPMCX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.64,
   "beta": 1.02,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1343,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0192,
   "z_10y": 0.82,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "vwelx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Vanguard Wellington",
   "who": "Wellington Management",
   "venue": "VWELX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (VWELX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 2.52,
   "beta": 0.62,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.0997,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0145,
   "z_10y": -1.2,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "vwnfx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Vanguard Windsor II",
   "who": "Vanguard",
   "venue": "VWNFX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (VWNFX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.62,
   "beta": 0.91,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1121,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0055,
   "z_10y": -0.74,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "vghcx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Vanguard Health Care",
   "who": "Ed Owens (to 2012)",
   "venue": "VGHCX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (VGHCX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": "Sector fund: against the S&P 500, its z includes the sector's own run.",
   "z": 3.67,
   "beta": 0.67,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1449,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0553,
   "z_10y": -0.29,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "oakmx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Oakmark Fund",
   "who": "Bill Nygren",
   "venue": "OAKMX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (OAKMX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.59,
   "beta": 0.95,
   "n": 420,
   "first": "1991-09",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 35.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1266,
   "ann_bench": 0.1085,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0238,
   "z_10y": -0.49,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "nyvtx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Davis New York Venture",
   "who": "Davis Advisors",
   "venue": "NYVTX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (NYVTX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -0.64,
   "beta": 0.98,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1035,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0067,
   "z_10y": -0.68,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "mpgfx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Mairs & Power Growth",
   "who": "Mairs & Power",
   "venue": "MPGFX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (MPGFX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.12,
   "beta": 0.88,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1163,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0123,
   "z_10y": -1.45,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "bgrfx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Baron Growth",
   "who": "Ron Baron (since 1994)",
   "venue": "BGRFX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (BGRFX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -0.01,
   "beta": 1.0,
   "n": 372,
   "first": "1995-09",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 31.0,
   "ann_return": 0.101,
   "ann_bench": 0.1068,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0001,
   "z_10y": -2.08,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "bptrx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Baron Partners",
   "who": "Ron Baron",
   "venue": "BPTRX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (BPTRX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.03,
   "beta": 1.44,
   "n": 415,
   "first": "1992-02",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 34.6,
   "ann_return": 0.1578,
   "ann_bench": 0.1084,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0312,
   "z_10y": 0.66,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "fpacx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "FPA Crescent",
   "who": "Steven Romick (since 1993)",
   "venue": "FPACX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FPACX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.9,
   "beta": 0.59,
   "n": 398,
   "first": "1993-07",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 33.2,
   "ann_return": 0.0976,
   "ann_bench": 0.1087,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0221,
   "z_10y": -0.61,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "llpfx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Longleaf Partners",
   "who": "Mason Hawkins (since 1987)",
   "venue": "LLPFX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (LLPFX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -1.04,
   "beta": 0.95,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.0855,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0176,
   "z_10y": -2.48,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "gabax",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Gabelli Asset Fund",
   "who": "Mario Gabelli (since 1986)",
   "venue": "GABAX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (GABAX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.43,
   "beta": 0.89,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1084,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.004,
   "z_10y": -1.71,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "pennx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Royce Pennsylvania Mutual",
   "who": "Chuck Royce",
   "venue": "PENNX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (PENNX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.31,
   "beta": 0.92,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1083,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0049,
   "z_10y": -1.24,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "wvalx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Weitz Value",
   "who": "Wally Weitz",
   "venue": "WVALX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (WVALX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -0.06,
   "beta": 0.82,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.0967,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0007,
   "z_10y": -2.27,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "jensx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Jensen Quality Growth",
   "who": "Jensen Investment Management",
   "venue": "JENSX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (JENSX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.07,
   "beta": 0.82,
   "n": 409,
   "first": "1992-08",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 34.1,
   "ann_return": 0.0938,
   "ann_bench": 0.1084,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0007,
   "z_10y": -1.19,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "polrx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Polen Growth",
   "who": "Polen Capital",
   "venue": "POLRX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (POLRX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": -1.17,
   "beta": 1.02,
   "n": 188,
   "first": "2011-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 15.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1162,
   "ann_bench": 0.1416,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0218,
   "z_10y": -1.53,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "akrex",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Akre Focus",
   "who": "Chuck Akre",
   "error": "too short"
  },
  {
   "id": "yackx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "AMG Yacktman",
   "who": "Yacktman Asset Management",
   "venue": "YACKX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (YACKX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 1.41,
   "beta": 0.76,
   "n": 409,
   "first": "1992-08",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 34.1,
   "ann_return": 0.1088,
   "ann_bench": 0.1084,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0205,
   "z_10y": 0.37,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "prblx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Parnassus Core Equity",
   "who": "Parnassus",
   "venue": "PRBLX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (PRBLX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 2.24,
   "beta": 0.81,
   "n": 408,
   "first": "1992-09",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 34.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1143,
   "ann_bench": 0.1094,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0194,
   "z_10y": -0.37,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "jaenx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Janus Henderson Enterprise",
   "who": "Janus Henderson",
   "venue": "JAENX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (JAENX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": null,
   "z": 0.2,
   "beta": 1.09,
   "n": 408,
   "first": "1992-09",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 34.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1115,
   "ann_bench": 0.1094,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0044,
   "z_10y": -1.13,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "slmcx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Columbia Seligman Technology",
   "who": "Columbia Threadneedle",
   "venue": "SLMCX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (SLMCX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": "Sector fund: against the S&P 500, its z includes the sector's own run.",
   "z": 0.64,
   "beta": 1.29,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.1401,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0173,
   "z_10y": 1.77,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "fsptx",
   "group": "markets",
   "name": "Fidelity Select Technology",
   "who": "Fidelity",
   "venue": "FSPTX, monthly",
   "source": "Yahoo Finance adjusted close (FSPTX, USD)",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "note": "Sector fund: against the S&P 500, its z includes the sector's own run.",
   "z": 0.92,
   "beta": 1.44,
   "n": 464,
   "first": "1988-01",
   "last": "2026-08",
   "years": 38.7,
   "ann_return": 0.159,
   "ann_bench": 0.1146,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0248,
   "z_10y": 1.68,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_58e1b0e6",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x58e1…132e",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x58e1b0e63c905d5982324fcd9108582623b8132e",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #7 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 3.486,
   "z_raw": 4.487,
   "beta": 0.595,
   "years": 2.8,
   "first": "2023-12-06",
   "flags": [
    "no_losing_week"
   ],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_dfc24b07",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP)",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0xdfc24b077bc1425ad1dea75bcb6f8158e10df303",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #9 by all-time PnL",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 3.393,
   "z_raw": 3.425,
   "beta": -0.028,
   "years": 3.5,
   "first": "2023-05-10",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_0526345b",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x0526…bb9a",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x0526345bf8e09eb32256008c2844c8949ee3bb9a",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #49 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 3.326,
   "z_raw": 3.366,
   "beta": -0.762,
   "years": 0.9,
   "first": "2025-10-29",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_d487e26c",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0xd487…4982",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0xd487e26c62ed8c28ce3cc70b5791e501c2934982",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #32 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 3.068,
   "z_raw": 3.042,
   "beta": -0.282,
   "years": 2.3,
   "first": "2024-07-10",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_7548f42d",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x7548…5788",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x7548f42d3c235f970ea235d592047085a6d65788",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #10 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 3.066,
   "z_raw": 2.991,
   "beta": -0.66,
   "years": 0.4,
   "first": "2026-02-18",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_3e7c1640",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x3e7c…3909",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x3e7c16408c6691e0218167cee78bec7ebad03909",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #15 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 2.794,
   "z_raw": 3.061,
   "beta": 0.528,
   "years": 0.2,
   "first": "2026-07-22",
   "flags": [
    "no_losing_week"
   ],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_67ed53ea",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x67ed…623e",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x67ed53ea9c234919c8fb6058d971275bb49f623e",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #11 by 30-day ROI",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 2.717,
   "z_raw": 2.724,
   "beta": -0.153,
   "years": 0.6,
   "first": "2026-03-04",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hl_ff4cd382",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0xff4c…463c",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0xff4cd3826ecee12acd4329aada4a2d3419fc463c",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid, #88 by all-time PnL",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 2.639,
   "z_raw": 2.758,
   "beta": 0.766,
   "years": 2.7,
   "first": "2024-01-31",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "machi",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "Machi Big Brother",
   "who": "Jeffrey Huang",
   "address": "0x020ca66c30bec2c4fe3861a94e4db4a498a35872",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly; address labelled machibigbrother.eth (ENS)",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": -1.189,
   "z_raw": -1.23,
   "beta": 39.208,
   "years": 1.4,
   "first": "2025-05-21",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "wynn",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "James Wynn",
   "who": "James Wynn",
   "address": "0x5078c2fbea2b2ad61bc840bc023e35fce56bedb6",
   "venue": "Hyperliquid",
   "source": "Hyperliquid public API, weekly; address attributed by Lookonchain and Onchain Lens",
   "benchmark": "BTC",
   "z": 0.37,
   "z_raw": 0.316,
   "beta": 3.634,
   "years": 1.0,
   "first": "2025-03-19",
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_476e1322",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "asparagus2012",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x476e1322d1a412fa0325527b8c3bc5e707b1396d",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #40 by all-time profit",
   "events": 9,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.4,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_ed2239a9",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "Michie",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0xed2239a9150c3920000d0094d28fa51c7db03dd0",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #50 by all-time profit",
   "events": 8,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.24,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_16f91db2",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "Jenzigo",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x16f91db2592924cfed6e03b7e5cb5bb1e32299e3",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #32 by all-time profit",
   "events": 6,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.23,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_5966db1f",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "0x5966…f804",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x5966db1fe50763c9e3c014d756369bad07e1f804",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #43 by all-time profit",
   "events": 168,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.23,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_863134d0",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "RepTrump",
   "who": null,
   "address": "0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #12 by all-time profit",
   "events": 5,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.1,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "pm_56687bf4",
   "group": "crypto",
   "name": "Theo4",
   "who": "Théo, the 2024 “French whale” (one of his four accounts)",
   "address": "0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839",
   "venue": "Polymarket, #1 by all-time profit",
   "events": 9,
   "source": "Polymarket public API, 2026-10-15 (audit 008)",
   "benchmark": "price paid per share",
   "z": 2.05,
   "z_raw": null,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_46401e00",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "DEGEN",
   "who": "AI agent",
   "venue": "Recall, Perps Trading Competition (4.0 days, 29 agents)",
   "source": "Recall public API (audit 011)",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns, days long)",
   "z": 2.291,
   "z_raw": 2.291,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_b7a92890",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "GME",
   "who": "AI agent",
   "venue": "Recall, Perps Trading Competition (4.0 days, 29 agents)",
   "source": "Recall public API (audit 011)",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns, days long)",
   "z": 1.889,
   "z_raw": 1.889,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_cd1059a0",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "JT",
   "who": "AI agent",
   "venue": "Recall, Perps Trading Challenge (6.0 days, 11 agents)",
   "source": "Recall public API (audit 011)",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns, days long)",
   "z": 1.87,
   "z_raw": 1.87,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_alpha_arena",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "Best model in Alpha Arena season 1",
   "who": "AI model (6 competed)",
   "venue": "nof1 Alpha Arena, season 1",
   "source": "audit 006",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns)",
   "z": 0.54,
   "z_raw": 0.54,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_tr_openai",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "Leader of TradeRank season 10 (openai)",
   "who": "AI model",
   "venue": "TradeRank season 10, day 9 of 28 (22 models, simulated)",
   "source": "TradeRank public API (audit 013)",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns, days long)",
   "z": 1.185,
   "z_raw": 1.185,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "ai_tr_jev",
   "group": "ai",
   "name": "Jev (TypeSafe)",
   "who": "AI model",
   "venue": "TradeRank season 10, day 9 of 28 (22 models, simulated)",
   "source": "TradeRank public API (audit 013)",
   "benchmark": "none (raw returns, days long)",
   "z": -0.214,
   "z_raw": -0.214,
   "beta": null,
   "years": null,
   "flags": [],
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_citadel_wellington",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Citadel Wellington",
   "who": "Ken Griffin",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 18 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 18,
   "z": 1.21,
   "beta": 0.71,
   "n": 18,
   "first": "2008",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 18.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1335,
   "ann_bench": 0.1106,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0666,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_millennium",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Millennium Management",
   "who": "Izzy Englander",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 12 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 16,
   "z": 2.83,
   "beta": 0.04,
   "n": 12,
   "first": "2014",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 12.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1128,
   "ann_bench": 0.1355,
   "alpha_ann": 0.091,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_bridgewater_pure_alpha",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Bridgewater Pure Alpha",
   "who": "Ray Dalio",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 16 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 17,
   "z": 1.89,
   "beta": -0.26,
   "n": 16,
   "first": "2010",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 16.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0797,
   "ann_bench": 0.1413,
   "alpha_ann": 0.1107,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_de_shaw_composite",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "D.E. Shaw Composite",
   "who": "D.E. Shaw",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 10 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 12,
   "z": 3.45,
   "beta": -0.14,
   "n": 10,
   "first": "2016",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 10.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1456,
   "ann_bench": 0.1482,
   "alpha_ann": 0.1456,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_elliott",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Elliott Associates",
   "who": "Paul Singer",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 4 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 12,
   "error": "4 consecutive years reported; 8 needed"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_point72",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Point72",
   "who": "Steve Cohen",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 7 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 9,
   "error": "7 consecutive years reported; 8 needed"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_greenlight",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Greenlight Capital",
   "who": "David Einhorn",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 12 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 17,
   "z": 0.27,
   "beta": 0.16,
   "n": 12,
   "first": "2014",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 12.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0416,
   "ann_bench": 0.1355,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0201,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_third_point",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Third Point Offshore",
   "who": "Dan Loeb",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 17 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 17,
   "z": -0.57,
   "beta": 0.92,
   "n": 17,
   "first": "2008",
   "last": "2024",
   "years": 17.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0812,
   "ann_bench": 0.1067,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0161,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_two_sigma",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Two Sigma Spectrum",
   "who": "Two Sigma",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 2 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 5,
   "error": "2 consecutive years reported; 8 needed"
  },
  {
   "id": "hf_tiger_global",
   "group": "press",
   "name": "Tiger Global (flagship)",
   "who": "Chase Coleman",
   "venue": "Yearly net returns as reported, 8 consecutive years",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends",
   "source": "press and firm reports, one source per year (hedge_funds_press.json)",
   "years_found": 16,
   "z": -0.6,
   "beta": 1.24,
   "n": 8,
   "first": "2018",
   "last": "2025",
   "years": 8.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0589,
   "ann_bench": 0.1433,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0728,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_duan",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "H&H International",
   "who": "Duan Yongping (段永平)",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 31 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001759760-h-h-international-investment-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 31,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2024-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.968,
   "options_share_mean": 0.032,
   "z": 1.59,
   "beta": 1.07,
   "n": 90,
   "first": "2019-01",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 7.5,
   "ann_return": 0.2831,
   "ann_bench": 0.1844,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0787,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_burry",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Scion Asset Management",
   "who": "Michael Burry",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 32 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001649339-scion-asset-management-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 32,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2015-12",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2018-12",
    "2019-03",
    "2019-09",
    "2019-12",
    "2020-03",
    "2020-06",
    "2020-09",
    "2020-12",
    "2021-06",
    "2022-09",
    "2022-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.815,
   "options_share_mean": 0.262,
   "z": 1.29,
   "beta": 0.64,
   "n": 54,
   "first": "2016-10",
   "last": "2025-12",
   "years": 4.5,
   "ann_return": 0.2244,
   "ann_bench": 0.1202,
   "alpha_ann": 0.1566,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_druck",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Duquesne Family Office",
   "who": "Stanley Druckenmiller",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001536411-duquesne-family-office-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2017-03"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.931,
   "options_share_mean": 0.037,
   "z": 2.21,
   "beta": 1.1,
   "n": 138,
   "first": "2015-01",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 11.5,
   "ann_return": 0.2301,
   "ann_bench": 0.1362,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0747,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "clears_single"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_lilu",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Himalaya Capital",
   "who": "Li Lu (李录)",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 35 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001709323-himalaya-capital-management-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 35,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2017-12",
    "2018-03"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.869,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": -0.8,
   "beta": 1.13,
   "n": 87,
   "first": "2018-07",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 7.2,
   "ann_return": 0.0816,
   "ann_bench": 0.1292,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0458,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_leopold",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Situational Awareness LP",
   "who": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 7 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0002045724-situational-awareness-lp",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 7,
   "quarters_skipped": [],
   "mean_cover": 0.998,
   "options_share_mean": 0.344,
   "error": "mostly options"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_tepper",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Appaloosa",
   "who": "David Tepper",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 42 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001656456-appaloosa-lp",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 42,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2018-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.893,
   "options_share_mean": 0.038,
   "z": 0.33,
   "beta": 1.26,
   "n": 102,
   "first": "2018-01",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 8.5,
   "ann_return": 0.1711,
   "ann_bench": 0.1316,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0152,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_klarman",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Baupost Group",
   "who": "Seth Klarman",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001061768-baupost-group-llc-ma",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03",
    "2015-06",
    "2015-09",
    "2015-12",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2017-12",
    "2018-03",
    "2018-06",
    "2018-09",
    "2018-12",
    "2019-03",
    "2019-06",
    "2019-09",
    "2019-12",
    "2020-03",
    "2020-06",
    "2020-09",
    "2020-12",
    "2021-03",
    "2021-06",
    "2021-09",
    "2021-12",
    "2022-03",
    "2022-06",
    "2022-09",
    "2022-12",
    "2023-03",
    "2023-06",
    "2023-09",
    "2023-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.709,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": -0.17,
   "beta": 1.02,
   "n": 30,
   "first": "2024-04",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 2.5,
   "ann_return": 0.1501,
   "ann_bench": 0.1753,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0159,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_hillhouse",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Hillhouse (HHLR Advisors)",
   "who": "Zhang Lei (张磊)",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 31 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001762304-hhlr-advisors-ltd",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 31,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2018-12",
    "2019-03",
    "2019-06"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.925,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": -0.19,
   "beta": 0.65,
   "n": 84,
   "first": "2019-10",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 7.0,
   "ann_return": 0.0437,
   "ann_bench": 0.16,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0209,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_coleman",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Tiger Global",
   "who": "Chase Coleman",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001167483-tiger-global-management-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03",
    "2015-06",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2017-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.884,
   "options_share_mean": 0.002,
   "z": -0.24,
   "beta": 1.18,
   "n": 108,
   "first": "2015-10",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 9.0,
   "ann_return": 0.1449,
   "ann_bench": 0.1512,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0141,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_einhorn",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Greenlight Capital",
   "who": "David Einhorn",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 37 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001079114-greenlight-capital-inc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 37,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03",
    "2015-06",
    "2015-09",
    "2015-12",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2018-03",
    "2018-06",
    "2018-09",
    "2021-03",
    "2021-06",
    "2021-09",
    "2022-03",
    "2022-06",
    "2022-09",
    "2023-03",
    "2023-06",
    "2023-09"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.767,
   "options_share_mean": 0.01,
   "z": -0.73,
   "beta": 1.65,
   "n": 45,
   "first": "2017-07",
   "last": "2024-03",
   "years": 3.8,
   "ann_return": 0.2471,
   "ann_bench": 0.2128,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0668,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_loeb",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Third Point",
   "who": "Dan Loeb",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001040273-third-point-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03",
    "2015-06",
    "2015-09",
    "2015-12",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2017-12",
    "2018-03",
    "2018-06",
    "2018-09",
    "2018-12",
    "2019-03",
    "2019-06",
    "2019-09",
    "2019-12",
    "2020-03"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.827,
   "options_share_mean": 0.008,
   "z": -0.81,
   "beta": 0.98,
   "n": 75,
   "first": "2020-07",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 6.2,
   "ann_return": 0.1152,
   "ann_bench": 0.1707,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0394,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_pabrai",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Dalal Street",
   "who": "Mohnish Pabrai",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001549575-dalal-street-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03",
    "2015-06",
    "2015-09",
    "2015-12",
    "2016-03",
    "2016-06",
    "2016-09",
    "2016-12",
    "2017-03",
    "2017-06",
    "2017-09",
    "2017-12",
    "2018-03",
    "2018-06",
    "2018-09",
    "2018-12",
    "2019-03",
    "2019-06",
    "2019-09",
    "2019-12",
    "2023-09",
    "2023-12",
    "2024-03",
    "2024-06",
    "2024-09",
    "2024-12"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.649,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": 0.85,
   "beta": 0.91,
   "n": 60,
   "first": "2020-04",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 5.0,
   "ann_return": 0.2782,
   "ann_bench": 0.1933,
   "alpha_ann": 0.1479,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_akre",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Akre Capital",
   "who": "Chuck Akre",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001112520-akre-capital-management-llc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [
    "2014-12",
    "2015-03"
   ],
   "mean_cover": 0.932,
   "options_share_mean": 0.003,
   "z": -0.39,
   "beta": 0.97,
   "n": 135,
   "first": "2015-07",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 11.2,
   "ann_return": 0.1176,
   "ann_bench": 0.1413,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0122,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_gates",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Gates Foundation Trust",
   "who": "Bill Gates",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001166559-gates-foundation-trust",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [],
   "mean_cover": 0.994,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": 0.19,
   "beta": 0.83,
   "n": 141,
   "first": "2015-01",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 11.8,
   "ann_return": 0.1157,
   "ann_bench": 0.136,
   "alpha_ann": 0.0049,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  },
  {
   "id": "f13_brk13f",
   "group": "clones",
   "name": "Berkshire Hathaway, 13F stock portfolio",
   "who": "Warren Buffett",
   "venue": "13F holdings, 47 quarters",
   "source": "13f.info (SEC EDGAR mirror), 0001067983-berkshire-hathaway-inc",
   "benchmark": "S&P 500 with dividends (VFINX)",
   "quarters": 47,
   "quarters_skipped": [],
   "mean_cover": 0.981,
   "options_share_mean": 0.0,
   "z": -0.79,
   "beta": 1.04,
   "n": 141,
   "first": "2015-01",
   "last": "2026-09",
   "years": 11.8,
   "ann_return": 0.1164,
   "ann_bench": 0.136,
   "alpha_ann": -0.0189,
   "z_10y": null,
   "verdict": "luck"
  }
 ],
 "needs_data": [
  {
   "who": "Peter Lynch",
   "record": "Fidelity Magellan, 1977–1990",
   "why": "the price feed misses distributions before 1987; needs Fidelity’s yearly returns"
  },
  {
   "who": "John Neff",
   "record": "Vanguard Windsor, 1964–1995",
   "why": "same gap in the price feed; needs Vanguard’s yearly returns"
  },
  {
   "who": "George Soros",
   "record": "Quantum Fund",
   "why": "no complete yearly series published; only scattered years"
  },
  {
   "who": "Peter Thiel",
   "record": "Clarium Capital, Founders Fund",
   "why": "no public return series"
  },
  {
   "who": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
   "record": "Situational Awareness LP",
   "why": "most of the 13F value is options, which a holdings estimate cannot price; returns reported by the press, not published"
  },
  {
   "who": "Ray Dalio",
   "record": "Bridgewater Pure Alpha",
   "why": "private; the public All Weather ETF is too new"
  }
 ]
}